Will the peninsula become a ‘hurricane graveyard’?

  • The remains of Hurricane Danielle are going to arrive in the form of a storm, and with Earl the same can happen: will there be more?

  • For this to happen, certain atmospheric circumstances must occur in the Atlantic: at the moment,

  • The NHC also closely monitors two tropical waves, which “are usually the germs of tropical storms and hurricanes”

Danielle’s remains will die with us, and thanks to that meek death we are going to get rains. It’s great news.” Francisco Martín, meteorologist at Meteoredspeak of ex-Hurricane Danielle, already turned into a storm. And he explains that he is not the only one we should be aware of. The remnants of another hurricane, named Earl, may end up arriving as well to the peninsula, although in this case the uncertainty is very high because it is still very far away.

“It seems that remnants of former Hurricane Earl could also end up west of the peninsulawith all the uncertainties in sight. We could become a graveyard for ex-hurricanes, this September”, warns the meteorologist. for this to happen certain circumstances have to be met, which are happening right now. He explains them like this:

  • a blocking anticyclone in Greenland, “which is a wall”: it prevents the passage of storms and cyclones coming from the south. If it were to withdraw, tropical storms or hurricanes would go towards the British Isles or towards Iceland
  • the Azores anticyclonewhich is always there
  • a hallway in mid latitudes to carry tropical cyclones towards the peninsula

“It is these circumstances, which occur these days, that bring us remains of hurricanes,” explains Martín. Y If these circumstances remained in time, “the Iberian Peninsula would be a cemetery, an area where the remains of hurricanes die”. The problem is that it is not possible to know if all these factors are going to continue there, the predictions do not go very far.

Two former hurricanes arriving like storms

“According to the current predictions, which go up to 10 days, the atmospheric circumstances dominated by these factors will be there for now”, he warns. “But this can change 10 days from now.” What it does seem is that Earl is going to follow a path quite similar to Danielle’s, although his training has been very different.

“Weather conditions are occurring for that the two hurricanes that have formed so far appear at the gates of the Iberian Peninsula. Danielle, on Sunday. And then Earlthe one that comes after, which is the second of the season and the most intense for now. The numerical models also take it to the west of the peninsula, although still with some uncertainty”, warns Martin.

The AEMET spokesman, Rubén del Campo, warns of the same. “Earl has been following a route quite similar to Danielle’s., although their training conditions have not been similar at all. In principle, it is possible that it follows that trajectory and, once it became a storm, it is not ruled out that it could reach the west of the peninsula end of next week.”

Martín explains that one of the factors that is taking place for this to happen – and the most important, because it is where hurricanes gain strength- “The Atlantic water temperature anomaly will last between 8 and 10 more days.” It is what the current predictions say. “If this is true, we would have the remains of Hurricane Earl also arriving as a storm.”

Whether the forecasts come true or not, it can be said that “September is starting in an anomalous, atypical way” in the North Atlantic, recognizes the meteorologist. Can more hurricanes come after Danielle and Earl?

And then what?: the NHC monitors two tropical waves

“That is already more difficult to say, the NHC does not make predictions beyond 5 daysWe don’t know,” warns Martin. The NHC, the US National Hurricane Center, which is the reference agency, keep a close eye on anything in the tropics likely to become tropical storms or hurricanes. That is, “they monitor the germs of tropical storms, and also those that are already formed (like Earl)”. Not Danielle anymore, because she’s a storm.

And in that vigilance, for a few days they have also had their eye on “two tropical waves that, in principle, they could move around the Azores anticyclone”. We see it on his Twitter profile.

But what is a tropical wave? Martín explains that “a tropical wave is an area of ​​low pressure that forms in the tropics, far to the south of the Canary Islands, in the area of ​​Cape Verde”. And that they monitor them because “they are usually the germs of tropical storms and hurricanes.” They may or may not be, but you have to watch them, because they can evolve to that. “In fact, Earl was formed from a tropical wave”remembers the meteorologist.

The NHC works with probabilities, and right now they give 40% to the formation of a tropical storm in one of the waves, and 20% to the other, according to Martín. They update their predictions every six hours, so you will have to be very vigilant these days.

In this image shared by the Twitter profile “Cazatormentas” it looked very clear the panorama this Friday in a very active Atlantic.

At the moment, and “5 days ahead, the NHC estimates that Earl may become a category 2 or 3 hurricane, because it is going to intensify”, explains Martin. About what comes next, and how these tropical waves will evolve, we have to wait. But if they followed in Danielle and Earl’s footsteps and ended up becoming hurricanes, they could fuel that ‘graveyard’ again.

Rains at last, thanks Danielle

what yes It is already clear that Danielle will bring rain to the peninsula. And the good ones, the ones that will help alleviate the drought somewhat, not torrential ones. “The good thing is that the former hurricane Danielle is loaded with subtropical humidity, she brings rains that soak the ground. Now it is a very efficient Atlantic storm”, says Martín.

He too meteorologist at Meteored Víctor González insist on the same. He explains that once it enters and positions itself over the west of the peninsula, “it will favor the arrival of a river of moisture of subtropical origin, with a high moisture content and very high values ​​of precipitable waterwhich will allow the fronts and rainfall associated with the storm to be very efficient”.

What is a river of moisture? He explains it: “a large mass of air with a long journey over subtropical seas and therefore warm, high moisture content and with a lot of potential to leave intense precipitations”.

for now, this weekend, Danielle brings us warmth, driving warm winds from the south. But on Sunday night, the storm will enter Galicia and on Monday it will already unload abundant rains, first in the entire west of the peninsula and from Tuesday they will spread to the east. On Wednesday they will cease.

As explained by the meteorologists from ‘eltiempo.es’,It’s been a long time since quantities like those planned have been recorded, which in many cases may exceed 40-50 liters per square meter and punctually 100 mm”. Also, these rains will spread to almost the entire peninsula and “may help alleviate the meteorological drought that the southwestern zone suffers: both Extremadura and Andalusia will be able to have generous rains”. and eye to the wind, also. “The wind on Monday and Tuesday will also be highlighted.”

Del Campo thus sums up what is to come: “Danielle is going to arrive as a deep storm that is going to leave quite abundant rains, wind and a marked drop in temperatures. A totally autumnal atmosphere.


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