The pressure is on the underlying By


By Laura Sanchez – It’s the macro quote of the day. At 2:30 p.m. Spanish time we will know the inflation data in the United States for the month of August.

It is expected to rise 8.1%, from the rise of 8.5% in July and the peak of 9.1% in June, which would confirm a trend towards a slowdown in the pace of gains.

However, the consensus expects the (general index without fresh food and energy) to rise 6.1%, two tenths more than the increase of 5.9% in July.

“Any better-than-expected reading will be very well received by the markets, which could thus consolidate their recent advances in the short term. On the other hand, an inflation that ‘is reluctant to subside’, we believe, could cause some profit-taking in the European and US stock markets, specifically by the most short-term investors”, they explain in Link Securities.

“We could continue to confirm a ceiling in the general rate, although there is still upward pressure on the underlying rate. This could reaffirm the market forecasts of a new 75 basis points by the Fed (), the third consecutive of this amount”, they highlight in Renta 4 (BME:).

In Banca March, 2 factors stand out that support the forecasts of moderation in August: “On the one hand, the drop in energy prices – the average cost of a gallon of gasoline in North American territory fell by 7.5% in August –, and on the other hand, an improvement in the supply chains, which reflects the moderation in the growth of production prices, which in July went from a rise of 18% to 15%”.

“However, in less volatile components, the turnaround has not come. On the one hand, employment remains strong and salary pressure could continue to move towards services, and on the other hand, the housing section will continue to contribute positively given the delay with which the weakness of the real estate market has historically been reflected in the inflation figures, an exhaustion that became really evident only in the month of July, so we will surely have mixed data, with the general data moderating but with inflation without a clear destination”, add these analysts.

“If the core rate rises, it will reinforce the hawkish/hard approach that Powell (Fed) has been conveying since (Aug 25/27). It will not help at all some stock markets that want to rebound, but cannot find reliable arguments”, they agree in Bankinter (BME:).

In fact, this Tuesday the European markets are trading in the green -, , …- but without much strength, in a day of transition while waiting to know these North American data.

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