In view of the latest events and known economic data, the Spanish Chamber of Commerce has decided to lower its forecasts for GDP growth both this year and for the next, although for the time being it rules out the possibility of an economic recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of falling output.
The Spanish economy will grow by 4.1% in 2022, according to the institution chaired by José Luís Bonet, which is two tenths less than the estimates made in July and two tenths less than the latest Government estimate. Looking ahead to next year, the slowdown translates into a rate of 2.2%, in this case six tenths less than those estimated in July and half a point less than the Executive’s forecast.
The study service of the Chamber of Spain estimates that the moment of greatest slack may be recorded throughout the second quarter of 2023, which is when the GDP could even reach a negative sign, although it would recover again over time. of the following quarters.
In terms of inflation, the Chamber revises its previous estimate upwards to place it at 8.4% on average this year, eight tenths more and at 3.9% in 2023, in this case six tenths more than in its previous estimate. in July. Regarding the underlying rate, this entity estimates an annual average of 4.8% this year and 4% for 2023.
This institution estimates that the rate of job creation will be lower than estimated in July, with rates of 2.8% in 2022 and 1.4% in 2023, which will not prevent the unemployment rate from continuing its downward trend until stand on average at 13.2% in 2023.
The lower dynamism in 2023 will be due, above all, to the slowdown in business investment. Gross fixed capital formation will grow by 3.3% next year, practically half of what was expected for this year, above all due to the lower strength of investment in capital goods and the lower pulse in construction.